Commentary

THE PEANUT GALLERYWhat's in a Number

By Seth Hettena



Monday, Nov. 5, 2007 | Sometimes it takes a disaster on the scale of last month’s wildfires to remind journalists that when called upon, they can be public servants. Many reporters found themselves evacuated from their homes -- at least one lost his home -- but they stayed at their job. Local TV stations took a huge financial hit by running days of wall-to-wall, ad-free coverage. The Union-Tribune devoted almost its entire staff to the blaze, and plucky KPBS teamed up with a rock station to remain on the air when the fire knocked out its transmitter. There were many standouts, and the local coverage helped me and many other people.

While San Diego’s news outlets were doing all they could to keep local audiences informed, the national media flocked to San Diego, sensing a story of global proportions unfolding. These far-flung journalists must have sucked down one lungful too many of hot Santa Ana winds because they were soon burping it right back up.

Seth Hettena

They found the hook for their story in the eye-popping numbers of evacuees that spread faster and farther than the fire itself.

It started on day three of the fires, Tuesday, Oct. 23. The massive headline on the front page of The San Diego Union-Tribune read "300,000 Flee Fires." The Los Angeles Times, which won a Pulitzer for its 2003 fire coverage, reported that things were actually much worse:

At least 233,000 households in San Diego County were asked to evacuate. At 2.7 people per household, which is the county average, that would amount to 620,000 people. Although all did not necessarily heed the request to leave their homes, enough did to tax evacuation centers and cause massive traffic jams.

Like a scene out of the movie “War of the Worlds,” traffic northbound on Interstate 5 from Oceanside to San Juan Capistrano was bumper to bumper, cars and trucks loaded with belongings as people headed to relative safety north, black smoke darkening the sky behind them.

The aliens must have arrived, because that evening, Brian Williams anchored the NBC Nightly News from a charred San Diego suburb, and tried to put the events into context:

Tonight, let’s take a look at some of the numbers as you survey some of the damage: 540,000 people have been evacuated. That’s over half a million Californians, that’s a number larger than the evacuations during Katrina. That makes it the largest peacetime movement of Americans since the Civil War.


County officials were indeed estimating half a million evacuees. As for Katrina, more than 1 million fled the storm’s wrath. But I’m stumped by the Civil War reference. Who really knows such things? It sure sounded good though, and CNN and Fox News used it, too.

The story had a momentum of its own that had been steadily building throughout the day. The Associated Press, my former employer, soon had word of a stunning development that borrowed the Los Angeles Times brand of mathamagic to beat the newspaper at its own game:

SAN DIEGO (AP) -- Faced with unrelenting winds whipping wildfires into a frenzy across Southern California, firefighters all but conceded defeat Tuesday to an unstoppable force that has chased an estimated 1 million people away ...

The fires also forced the evacuation of more than 350,000 houses, most of them in San Diego County. With the area's average household size of 2.6 people, that means the evacuation could encompass nearly 910,000 people.


TIME, the Washington Post and CNN, to name but a few, followed suit.

Cheering the reporters on was Sheriff Bill Kolender. On Oct. 22, day two of the Witch and Harris fires, he inexplicably and -- as it turned out, incorrectly -- predicted the blazes were "probably the worst fire this county has ever had -- well worse than the Cedar fire." Two days later, Kolender announced "We’ve evacuated more people than were evacuated in Katrina." Maybe he had been watching NBC Nightly News.

It was bad, but it wasn’t that bad. These numbers don’t hold up under scrutiny. They also fail the common sense test. If 1 million people had hit the roads in San Diego County our freeways would have looked like, well, they would have looked like the roads in Los Angeles. Perhaps sensing this instinctively, the Los Angeles Times published a front-page story Thursday calling the numbers into question -- the only major news outlet to do so -- but only in paragraph 16 did the newspaper reveal it had fallen into the same trap.

So where were these figures coming from? It appears that many were the product of the new Reverse911 software that had been installed following the deadlier and more destructive 2003 Cedar Fire in San Diego County. Reverse911 allows a user to highlight an area on a map, record a message and then, with the push of a button, instantly dial thousands of numbers and issue instructions to evacuate.

The county placed about 450,000 such calls during the October wildfires, according to Jan Caldwell, a spokeswoman for the San Diego Sheriff’s Department. County officials and reporters both relied on the system to provide the public with the number of households who had told to evacuate. The problem was the number of Reverse911 calls placed was simply a number and nothing more. The Sheriff’s Department was using the Reverse911 to call every number in an evacuated area. That means every fax, each second, third or fourth line, and every business line got a Reverse911 call, Caldwell said. In addition, not all Reverse911 calls went through. The Sheriff’s Department purchased their list of numbers from a commercial vendor, and that list was not completely up-to-date, Caldwell told me. Finally, some ignored the call to evacuate, most notably Jeff Bowman, San Diego’s fire chief during the 2003 Cedar Fire.

It’s unlikely we will ever know how many people were evacuated during the wildfires. That hasn’t stopped county officials from trying to count. Holly Crawford of the county’s Office of Emergency Services says a total of 515,000 people were evacuated. How did the county arrive at this number? Crawford said county officials used computer software that allowed them to overlay Census data on a map of the evacuated areas. Maybe I’ve become cynical, but before I believe any more evacuation numbers, I want to hear from more than a technician working with outdated census data.

A rule of thumb in journalism became apparent: The distance between the reporter and his or her audience was directly proportional to the degree of inaccuracy in the coverage. In other words, a reporter communicating with people far away was far more likely to get it wrong.

Unfortunately, sometimes bad information makes a good story into an unbelievable one.

Seth Hettena, a San Diego-based freelance journalist and author, will be writing an occasional column "The Peanut Gallery" about local media and journalism. You can contact him and send him your complaints, thoughts or stories about San Diego reporters by going to his website: www.sethhettena.com.




Reader Feedback


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Comments so far on this story:



1. D wrote on November 5, 2007 9:13 AM:
"Did a million people get evacuated? I seriously doubt it. The average evacuee number we hear is 500,000. Is that too many? You essentially state they got that number by doing estimates based on reverse 911 calls and census data. OK, if thats not an accurate number, what is? This article lays claim that the official estimates are exaggerated, but offers no alternative number. Its basically, "They say 515K were evacuated, but I don't believe it." Okaaay, so what is right? No alternative number from any source is cited, just a "just because I don't believe it.""

2. Sparky wrote on November 5, 2007 9:57 AM:
"Seth, I find it humorous you start out praising the wonderful job journalist did under such conditions as if the journalist's were bravely fighting the fires on the front lines, helping evacuate people in harms way and placing themselves in dnager. Then you blast them for putting out inaccurate numbers of evacuees. You write as if you are suprised. You act as if you are searching for someone to blame OTHER than the reporters of such. Journalist's have grown up in a society where accuracy and the truth do not seem to matter. Check fact and numbers? Why? It does not matter. "Unfortunately, sometimes bad information makes a good story into an unbelievable one." says it all... It's about selling a paper or a show. It's not about accurate, truthful reporting. What a shame."

3. Charles Foster Kane wrote on November 5, 2007 1:54 PM:
"The story that is aggressively ignored by local media is the discrepancy between coverage of the fires in the north and south. The northern ones in the preserves of the well-off got lots of air time and even a visit from the prez while the southern fires got a comparatively passing mention surrounding the high point of the charred Mexican corpses found in Bonita. That sucks. The other thing that sucks is the post-fire spin; self-congratulating San Diegans on how well-behaved we were as opposed to the have-nots who suffered Katrina. That kind of comparison is apples versus oranges. When the day comes when we lose the city to fire on the east winds and we're backed up on the beach with no Dunkirk relief, then we'll see how polite and orderly we'll be. I'm sure media clowns will misinterpret that one, too."

4. South of 8 wrote on November 5, 2007 5:20 PM:
"OK, where do I begin? Welcome Seth. Now to your premises. I agree with Sparky. The media today generally is less interested in getting right--than in getting it and getting it first. I live in the South Bay (ID give anyone a clue?) and it was frustrating trying to get any useful information on the Harris fire, its threat to the SB, etc from TV or radio. Mostly TV was congratulating itself over the great pictures, brave camera people and reporters, etc. instead of trying to give information to actually help. To be fair, our friends in the northern part of county didn't fare much better (according to them). The mass media has sold out to being a product over a public service. The hope is that THIS media (internet based) will begin to provide accurate and meaningful information."

5. D wrote on November 5, 2007 6:10 PM:
"I'm not one of the so-called "well off lot", but even so I refuse to jump on your self-loathing bandwagon. I tire of this whole "We suck! Only rich people's houses burned, I don't care about them; the only victims are poor illegals" mentallity. The fire to the south this time, just as in 2003, received less coverage because, duh, it threatened the least. And call me evil, but I have a LOT more sympathy for the people who died trying to save their homes, and the elderly who died because the shock of being evacuated was too much, than I do for illegals who marched INTO the fire."

6. Al Benson wrote on November 7, 2007 10:19 AM:
"Seth Hettena in his post-fire commentary is simply doing what journalists and the public should have been doing while the fires raged...question the sources and attribute them. The easy way is to attribute such numbers to the speaker and pass them along authoritatively without further question. Real journalists ask where the numbers come from. Seth does a service by clearly pointing out that these figures were manufactured estimates. That's fine, but this should be reported with the figures, so readers can decide if they want to believe them."

7. D wrote on November 7, 2007 5:23 PM:
"Al, I'm not saying 500K is the correct number, but figuring a number based on census tracts and the volume of reverse 911 calls seems like a reasonable method. The writer does nothing to show this method is off the mark - he just says he doesn't believe it, and offers no alternative. If 500K is not correct, then what is? "Just because" isn't good journalism."

8. Jack wrote on November 9, 2007 10:01 PM:
"Who cares? The number is around 500,000. Do you really need an exact count? The fires were bad and a whole lot of people evacuated. Public safety, local media, Red Cross, thousands of volunteers and many others did a remarkable job. Maybe the same people who blew up WTC building 7, shot JFK and aired false footage of Neil Armstrong are hard now at work in San Diego."

9. Oliver Holmes wrote on November 10, 2007 1:14 AM:
"A story not being covered, because its blasphamy to do so, is the "over" evacuation that occurred. Of course, the response is always better safe than sorry! Perhaps true, to a point. However, evacuation has a real impact on families, individuals, businesses etc. During the fire, the easy and safe thing for the fire Dept. was evacuate everyone even remotely " threatened". Afterall, what's the downside to the fire Dept? Nobody is going to question them on that. However, who was left to deal with the consequences for the evacuations? The police Dept, national guard, looters, the business community who for the most part gave the evacuated employees the days off? If we all agree that Aguirre was nuts for suggesting the entire City head to Yuma (and he was), then we can all agree that at some point you can "over"evacuate. Well I would suggest we did."

10. Rocky wrote on November 10, 2007 9:35 AM:
"Don't count on the Media for facts. The news anchors are just readers. Whatever comes up on the teleprompter in what they will voice. News is no longer news, its just entertainment. Reporters are more interested in how they look or how they sound on the air then the story. Story content is immaterial. Sitting on the news set is all fun and games and the news is secondary. It's the ratings that count because that's what sells air time. Clients only look at the numbers when they buy time and what is broadcast is immaterial to them too. Sad folks, but unfortunately true. It's called the "Dumbing Down of America" and its been going on for some time now. And from all indications, its working."

11. Poppa wrote on November 10, 2007 4:50 PM:
"The sensationalistic tone of Katie Couric was enough to send me back to local coverage. My mother in Atlanta was worried that I was burning to death. I live in Normal Heights. Thanks, national media. Keep the focus on those in need and let the nation know that everyone else is safe, which was the truth. Jackasses."

12. Rob H. wrote on November 13, 2007 11:16 AM:
"If not for the tragedy of the fires, I would have taken much more pleasure in watching the national media's fire coverage. It was like seeing a Mini Cooper pull up at the stadium, disgorging thousands of clowns who ran around squirting seltzer water and tripping over their long, floppy shoes. The fact that Geraldo Rivera even HAS a job anywhere outside the #672 TV market is an indictment of the entire TV "news" industry. He not only didn't have the facts..he was just making stuff up as he went along."

13. Rob H. wrote on November 13, 2007 11:29 AM:
"But Seth, if we're really in search of the facts, to "overlay Census data on a map of the evacuated areas" really is the best way to figure out how many people live in the evacuated zones. Census data is updated every year or two..yes, it's an estimate, but it's the best way to know how many people were involved. True, we won't know how many actually evacuated...but until we get those microchip with GPS installed in every citizen...well, we just can't be positive about anything, can we? Even then, I won't trust the government numbers...and I know you won't, either. Grassy knoll out."

14. Rob H. wrote on November 13, 2007 11:29 AM:
"But Seth, if we're really in search of the facts, to "overlay Census data on a map of the evacuated areas" really is the best way to figure out how many people live in the evacuated zones. Census data is updated every year or two..yes, it's an estimate, but it's the best way to know how many people were involved. True, we won't know how many actually evacuated...but until we get those microchip with GPS installed in every citizen...well, we just can't be positive about anything, can we? Even then, I won't trust the government numbers...and I know you won't, either. Grassy knoll out."

15. Rob H. wrote on November 13, 2007 11:29 AM:
"But Seth, if we're really in search of the facts, to "overlay Census data on a map of the evacuated areas" really is the best way to figure out how many people live in the evacuated zones. Census data is updated every year or two..yes, it's an estimate, but it's the best way to know how many people were involved. True, we won't know how many actually evacuated...but until we get those microchip with GPS installed in every citizen...well, we just can't be positive about anything, can we? Even then, I won't trust the government numbers...and I know you won't, either. Grassy knoll out."

16. Richard Rider wrote on November 18, 2007 9:39 AM:
"Was the reverse 911-based evacuation estimate reliable? Consider. At my home (with a home office), we have SIX phone lines, including a linguistically challenged FAX. TWO HOURS after the Mayor announced the "mandatory" evacuation of my Scripps Ranch subdivision on TV, all six of our phone lines lit up almost simultaneously. The recorded evac message was delivered by recording -- late, but as planned. If, as this article says, each such "completed" call was counted as an evacuated family (2.6 persons each), then my home supposedly evacuated about 16 people! Only 14 people off -- not bad for government accounting, I suppose."


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